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ClosedEconomy

Fed rate outlook

Minutes of the Fed's September meeting show all 19 officials backed the rate hike and many saw inflation as the biggest risk, with some wanting to prepare for bond-market stress. St. Louis Fed's Musalem says another hike will be needed to bring inflation to 2%.

Developments
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30 Sep
The latest development

ReutersThu 8 Oct · 19:15 UTC

Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation St. Louis Federal Reserve President ​Alberto…

01The story so far
twelve developments over nine days, a square each
02Developments

Developments

Thursday 8 October

1 development
  1. 19:15 UTC· the latest

    Fed's Musalem says more rate hikes needed

    St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said tighter policy is needed to bring inflation back to 2%, without saying what the Fed should do at its meeting later this month.

    1 sourceReuters
    • ReutersBlueskyThu 8 Oct, 19:15

      Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation St. Louis Federal Reserve President ​Alberto Musalem said on Thursday the US central bank will need to hike interest rates again to bring inflation back to ‌its 2% target, although he declined to say what polic
      The original post

Wednesday 7 October

2 developments
  1. 21:25 UTC

    Fed minutes show unanimous backing for September hike

    All 19 officials supported the September rate rise, with many citing intensifying inflation pressures. Some also said the Fed should get ready for bond-market stress.

    2 sourcesReuters, Bloomberg
    • ReutersBlueskyWed 7 Oct, 21:25

      Fed minutes show some officials want to prepare for market stress Federal Reserve meeting minutes from last month’s policy meeting noted some officials believe it’s time for the central bank to get ​ready for bond market stress.
      The original post
    • BloombergBlueskyThu 8 Oct, 01:30

      All 19 Fed officials backed the decision in September to raise interest rates, with many supporting the move to guard against the risk of intensifying inflation pressures. All 19 Federal Reserve officials backed the decision in September to raise interest rates, with many suppor
      The original post
  2. 18:40 UTC

    All 19 Fed officials backed September rate hike

    Minutes show many supported the move to guard against intensifying inflation pressures.

    1 sourceBloomberg
    • BloombergXWed 7 Oct, 18:40

      All 19 Fed officials backed the decision in September to raise interest rates, with many supporting the move to guard against the risk of intensifying inflation pressures.
      The original post

Monday 5 October

1 development
  1. 01:25 UTC

    Stocks rise, dollar wobbles as Fed hike bets recede

    Emerging-market assets, copper and gold gained and Asian stocks were upbeat as weak US jobs data and lower oil eased fears of aggressive Fed hikes.

    5 sourcesBloomberg, Reuters
    • BloombergXMon 5 Oct, 01:25

      Gold edged up after its biggest weekly drop since June, as traders weighed the impact of a slowdown in the US jobs market and higher bond yields on the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates
      The original post
    • BloombergXMon 5 Oct, 02:45

      Emerging-market stocks and currencies advanced after softer-than-expected US jobs data and a further decline in oil prices helped ease concern over aggressive rate hikes by the Fed
      The original post
    • BloombergXMon 5 Oct, 02:50

      Copper rose for a second session after a US employment report eased pressure on the Fed to raise rates
      The original post
    • ReutersXMon 5 Oct, 03:00

      Stocks upbeat, dollar wobbles as Fed hike bets recede
      The original post
    • ReutersXMon 5 Oct, 03:20

      Gold gains as October Fed rate hike prospects fade
      The original post

Saturday 3 October

2 developments
  1. 02:50 UTC

    Fed's Hammack says still time to weigh next move

    Fed official Hammack told PBS there is still time before deciding the next monetary policy move.

    1 sourceReuters
    • ReutersXSat 3 Oct, 02:50

      Fed's Hammack tells PBS there's still time to weigh next monetary policy move
      The original post
  2. 00:00 UTC

    US stocks rise as weak jobs data cuts Fed hike bets

    US stocks advanced to close the week after weaker-than-expected jobs data dampened expectations of a Fed rate hike this month.

    1 sourceReuters
    • ReutersXSat 3 Oct, 00:00

      US stocks advanced to close out the trading week after weaker-than-expected jobs data dampened expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting this month
      The original post

Friday 2 October

3 developments
  1. 16:20 UTC

    Jobs revisions leave October Fed hike nearly off the table

    Beyond the weak 29,000 September gain, payrolls for the prior two months were revised sharply lower, so the Fed is seen skipping an October hike; the dollar fell to a session low as traders trimmed bets.

    4 sourcesReuters, Bloomberg
    • ReutersXFri 2 Oct, 16:20

      Fed seen skipping October rate hike as job market cools
      The original post
    • BloombergXFri 2 Oct, 17:40

      The dollar fell to a session low on Friday after a report showed the US added fewer jobs than expected in September, leading traders to trim bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year
      The original post
    • ReutersXFri 2 Oct, 19:20

      US job growth undershoots expectations in September, but labor market remains stable
      The original post
    • ReutersXFri 2 Oct, 19:30

      US job growth slowed more than expected in September and the nonfarm payrolls count for the prior two months was revised sharply lower, almost taking another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month off the table
      The original post
  2. 12:37 UTC

    US adds only 29,000 jobs in September; unemployment 4.2%

    US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. July and August were revised down by 60,000 jobs, and bond traders pared expectations for another Fed hike this month.

    6 sourcesBloomberg, Associated Press, BBC World, NPR, Reuters
    • BloombergXFri 2 Oct, 12:37

      Breaking: The US added fewer jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate edged higher, pointing to employers’ cautiousness to hire amid rising costs
      The original post
    • Associated PressXFri 2 Oct, 12:43

      BREAKING: U.S. employers added a disappointing 29,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% ahead of the November midterms.
      The original post
    • BBC WorldXFri 2 Oct, 13:14

      US jobs market sees sharp slowdown in September
      The original post
    • NPRRSSFri 2 Oct, 13:54

      The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September as job market lacks spark U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Job gains for July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000 jobs, extending a lackluster run for the job mar
      The original post
    • ReutersXFri 2 Oct, 15:10

      US job growth slows sharply in September; unemployment rate rises to 4.2%
      The original post
    • BloombergXFri 2 Oct, 15:30

      Bond traders pared back their expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month on indications of weakness in the US labor market
      The original post
  3. 03:00 UTC

    Fed's Logan calls for '50 bps or more' in rate hikes

    Fed official Logan said policy should deliver 50 basis points or more of rate hikes, a hawkish contrast to Williams's cooler tone.

    1 sourceReuters
    • ReutersXFri 2 Oct, 03:00

      Fed's Logan calls for '50 bps or more' in rate hikes
      The original post

Wednesday 30 September

3 developments
  1. 12:30 UTC

    US PCE inflation at 3.4% cuts odds of October Fed hike

    The August PCE price index came in at 3.4% annually versus 3.7% forecast, lifting Wall Street and cutting the market-implied chance of an October hike to about 35%.

    2 sourcesReuters, The Guardian · World
    • ReutersXWed 30 Sep, 14:45

      Wall St climbs as cooling inflation tempers Fed rate-hike concerns
      The original post
    • The Guardian · WorldRSSWed 30 Sep, 15:34

      Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t hike rates Traders see an about 35% chance of an October rate hike, down from ​about 45% following White House pressureGood economic news boosted Wall Street’s main indexes on Wednesday, as a softer-than-anticipated infla
      The original post
  2. 10:15 UTC

    NY Fed's Williams cools expectations of October rate hike

    New York Fed president John Williams signalled caution on an October rate hike, which Reuters says may force markets to rethink their rate bets.

    1 sourceReuters
    • ReutersXWed 30 Sep, 10:15

      🔊 President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, is cooling expectations for an October rate hike. Hear why markets may need to rethink their rate bets on today’s Reuters Morning Bid podcast
      The original post
  3. 04:00 UTC

    Fed's Williams sees no urgency for next rate hike

    Reuters reported the comments from the New York Fed chief.

    1 sourceReuters
    • ReutersXWed 30 Sep, 04:00

      Fed's Williams sees no urgency for next rate hike
      The original post
03Seen in the story

What it looked like.

Thu 8 Oct · 19:15 · Reuters

Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation St. Louis Federal Reserve President ​Alberto…

Fed's Musalem says more rate hikes needed

Thu 8 Oct · 01:30 · Bloomberg

All 19 Fed officials backed the decision in September to raise interest rates, with many supporting the move to guard…

Fed minutes show unanimous backing for September hike

Wed 7 Oct · 21:25 · Reuters

Fed minutes show some officials want to prepare for market stress Federal Reserve meeting minutes from last month’s…

Fed minutes show unanimous backing for September hike